Private capital markets performing well in a backdrop of public market chaos

Key Highlights: A Market in Transition

• Total PE deal value surged 19% YoY to $421.1B, albeit with 20% fewer deals—signalling a shift toward larger, more strategic investments.
• The United States leads the sustainable private equity space with a significant $15.7B in capital invested and 188 deals, far surpassing other regions.
• Impact-driven sectors dominate, with Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and HealthTech leading deal flow.

Global Private Equity: Bigger Bets, Fewer Deals

Fundraising Trends: Figure A

Private equity is entering a new phase – less rushed than the 2021 boom, but more focused on strategy. The total deal value surged by 19%, hitting $421.1 billion (up from $354.1 billion in Q1 2024), the number of completed deals dropped by 20%, falling to 3,551 transactions. This suggests a shift toward fewer, but significantly larger and more strategic deals, with the average deal value rising to approximately $118.6 million.

Global Private Equity Deal Value by Quarter: Figure A

“Private equity is clearly moving on from the 2021 boom era towards a more measured and strategic phase. The latest tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration are prompting firms to reassess global exposures, particularly around supply chains and trade dependencies. Amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, we’re also seeing significant capital flows shifting from public to private markets—reflecting a growing preference for greater control, long-term value creation, and insulation from short-term volatility,“ said Salvatore D’Urso, Director of Earth Capital.

Emerging Regions for Sustainable Private Capital: Figure B

The United States leads by a wide margin in both capital invested ($15.7B) and deal count (188), underscoring its dominant position. Canada and Europe follow with strong activity—Canada attracted $8.2B across 63 deals, while Europe saw $5.5B spread over 112 deals. Asia also demonstrated solid performance, securing $7.2B from 44 deals. Meanwhile, South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania experienced more modest investment levels. Among them, Oceania stood out with 16 deals totalling $570.7M, indicating growing investor interest in the region.

Global Regional Deal Count in Impact-Driven Activities*: Figure B

The Impact-Driven Scorecard: PE’s Top Performing Sectors: Figure C

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology emerged as the clear front-runner, recording 133 deals and attracting $8.36B in capital. Healthcare Technology Systems followed with 45 deals and $5.66B invested.

Energy Services also saw strong interest, drawing $3.96B across 18 deals. Meanwhile, Healthcare Devices and Supplies (35 deals) and Commercial Services (40 deals) were among the most active sectors, each surpassing $3B in capital invested.

Deal Count by Primary Industry Group: Figure C

The Biggest Impact-Driven Deals Worldwide

1. Constellation Energy acquired Calpine for $16.4 billion – Expanding its clean energy portfolio with geothermal assets.
2. Johnson & Johnson acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion – Enhancing its neuroscience division with novel treatments for mental health conditions.
3. Borouge & Borealis acquired NOVA Chemicals for $13.4 billion – Creating the world’s fourth-largest polyolefins producer through a strategic merger.
4. ENN Natural Gas acquired ENN Energy for $11.64 billion – Consolidating its operations to improve efficiency and market reach.
5. Whitecap Resources acquired Veren for $10.43 billion – Forming Canada’s largest energy efficient, light oil focused producer through an all-stock transaction.

Impact-Focused Deals in the UK – 2025

• Greencore’s £1.2 Billion Acquisition of Bakkavor, offering 200p per share at a 32.5% premium. The deal aims to generate £95 million in synergies and serve major clients like Tesco, M&S, and Sainsbury’s.
• Cwind Acquired by All Energies Services Group for an undisclosed amount on January 8, 2025, expanding its renewable energy sector footprint.
• Green Gen UK Acquired by Hometree for an undisclosed amount on January 22, 2025, enhancing its presence in renewable energy installations.
• Surgery Hero Acquired by Sword Health for an undisclosed amount on January 23, 2025, advancing healthcare transformation through AI technology.

“In today’s market, private capital is gaining and increasing share in global investment. The most valuable deals are driven by companies enabling energy transition and the path to net zero, delivering scalable solutions and deploying technology with measurable impact,” said Giordano Mottola, Associate M&A and Fundraising at Earth Capital.

What’s Next? Sustainability, Impact & Smarter Investing

The New Rules of the Game

• ESG may be under pressure but climate change isn’t optional– Firms with strong sustainability credentials will perform better in the long-term.
• There’s still a ton of cash waiting– Once the global economy steadies and shocks to the system have played out, expect a wave of big moves.
• Tech, healthcare and new energyare the golden trio for investor action.
• Tariffs may be disruptive but private capital is well-placed to weather the storm.